海面上升对太湖流域经济影响的模拟与评估

Simulation and evaluation of influence of sea level rise on economy in Taihu Basin

以地处长江三角洲核心部位的太湖流域为研究区,应用Bootstrap方法预测了各市县至2030年的GDP值,进而基于海面-地面系统演变模型,就海平面上升到2030年对区域经济的影响进行了多场景模拟与评价。结果表明:由于区域内经济发达的市县多处于地势低平的地区,未来海面上升对太湖流域区域经济发展影响极为显著,其影响程度主要取决于各县市地形地貌条件及其经济发展水平。当海面上升值为23 cm、31 cm和60 cm时,受影响面积和GDP损失分别高达13.2%～24.0%和15.7%～26.9%。海面上升影响表现出区域分异的特征,以太湖、长江及其各支流为中心向外扩张,中部平原、洼地受影响较为严重,外围的北部和东部受影响较小。区域未来发展应考虑分区治理及区域内联合策略,以积极应对海面上升的可能威胁。

The influence of sea level rise on the economy in Taihu basin under different scenarios was studied herein. GDPs of cities and counties in Taihu Basin till the year of 2030 were predicted by Bootstrap method. The sea- level and land-surface system model was introduced to simulate and evaluate the influence of sea level rise on the regional economy of the basin till 2030. The results show that, because most of the developed counties are in lowlying areas, they are much more significantly affected by sea level rise, and the influenced degree is controlled by topographical condition and economic development. For the three different scenarios, when sea level rises 23 cm, 31 cm and 60 cm higher than the present sea level through 2030 respectively, the influenced areas and GDP losses will be 13% -24% , 14% -24% and 15.7% -26.9%. The potential influence from sea level rise are spatially non-uniform. It expands outside centering the Taihu lake, Yangzi River and their branches, while the peripheral higher regions are less affected. For the future development of Taihu Basin, the strategy of district governances and area joint should be considered to deal with the threats caused by sea level rise.