货币替代和反替代对我国汇率影响的实证研究

An Empirical Study on Currency Substitution,Currency Anti-substitution and Exchange Rate:A Case Study of China

货币替代和反替代会影响一国汇率政策的有效性和汇率的决定。我国目前货币替代和货币反替代并存,其中货币替代的程度呈现不断下降的趋势,而货币反替代的程度则不断增强。选取2001Q1-2011Q4之间的相关数据为研究样本,通过构建包含货币替代和货币反替代的粘性价格货币模型,实证检验了我国货币替代和货币反替代对人民币汇率的影响程度。结果发现:货币替代和货币反替代都会影响到我国的汇率,进而会降低我国汇率政策的有效性,但货币反替代的影响更加强烈。

The validity of exchange rate policy and the value of exchange rate is influenced by currency substitution and anti - substitution. Currency substitution and anti-substitution both exist in our country currently, and the degree of currency substitution declines while that of the anti-substitution rises. We build a portfolio model of sticky prices which includes both currency substitution and anti -substitution. We also test the impact of anti -substitution and currency substitution on China＇ s exchange rate with the model. The results are as followed. Both of the currency substitution and the anti-substitution would affect Chinese exchange rate, and then would reduce the degree of validity of our exchange rate policy, but the effect of the currency anti-substitution is much stronger.