中国建设用地规模变化及其影响因素

Construction Land Area Changes and Their Influencing Factors of China

建设用地是经济社会活动的重要基础,建设用地规模变化与经济社会发展有着密切的关系,深入分析中国建设用地规模及其变化的影响因素,对于正确认识中国土地利用中存在的问题及其未来改革创新方向具有深远意义。基于1996年和2007年的中国土地利用变更调查数据及经济社会统计数据,采用逐步回归分析方法,分别对1996年和2007年中国建设用地规模及其变化同经济社会因素的相关关系进行了定量研究。结果发现,1996年和2007年中国建设用地规模同经济社会因素的相关关系有所不同。1996年中国建设用地规模与非农产业产值、总人口正相关,与城镇居民人均收入负相关;2007年建设用地规模仅与总人口呈正相关关系。1996-2007年间中国建设用地规模变化仅与财政收入变化、城镇人口变化呈正相关,与非农业产值变化没有显著的相关关系。这一结果表明,1996年中国建设用地规模与经济社会发展状况相对比较协调,2007年则变得不够协调,1996-2007年间建设用地规模增加的主要动力源于地方政府对土地财政的严重依赖性和中国的快速城镇化,与产业发展和经济增长的协同性较弱。建设用地规模增加与经济社会发展的失调不利于中国社会经济的可持续发展,从长远来看,需要改革不合理的财政体制和土地征用制度。

Construction Land is an important foundation of socio-economic activities. Construction land area and its changes are closely related to socio-economic development. It is of far-reaching significance to reveal construction land area changes and indluencing factors for tackling land use problems and future reform in land management of China. Based on land use data and socio-economic statistical data of China of the years 1996 and 2007, the relationship between the construction land area （CLA） of China and the socio-economic factors in 1996 and 2007 respectively, as well as the relationship between CLA changes and socio-economic factors during 1996-2007, was studied by stepwise linear regression analysis method. It is found that the relationships between CLA and socio-economic factors are different in 1996 and 2007. CLA has significant positive relationships with non-agricultural industrial production and the total population, whereas it has significant negative relationships with income per capita of urban residents in 1996. CLA has significant positive relationships only with the total population in 2007. The CLA change during 1996-2007 shows significant positive relationships with financial revenue change and urban population, whereas no significant relationship between CLA and other socio-econom- ic factors was found. Moreover, the influence of financial revenue change on CLA change is larger than that of urban population on CLA change. The results reveal that CLA fitted relatively well for socio-economic activities in 1996 compared with 2007. The CLA change during 1996-2007 is driven more by the local govemment＇s land expropriation to increase local financial revenue and promote urbanization than the internal demand of local eco- nomic development. The results reveal that Chinese construction land area increase in the past decade is disad- vantageous to the long-term socio-economic sustainable development of China. Chinese government should re- form irrational financial regime and land expropriation institution to promote a harmonious relationship between construction land area expansion and socio-economic development.