基于层次分析法的未确知测度理论泥石流危险性评价

HAZARD ASSESSMENT OF DEBRIS FLOW BASED ON UNCERTAINTY MEASURE THEORY AND AHP

将未确知测度理论与层次分析方法相结合用于评价泥石流危险性。根据泥石流危险性的影响因素和等级划分标准,选取泥石流规模、泥石流发生频率、流域面积、主沟长度、最大相对高差、流域切割密度、主沟床弯曲系数、泥砂补给长度比、24小时最大降雨量、人口密度等10个指标作为泥石流危险评价因子,利用未确知测度理论建立泥石流危险性评价指标的未确知测度函数,通过层次分析方法确定各评价指标的权重,依据置信度识别准则对泥石流危险性进行评价,并结合实例进行了对比分析。研究结果表明,基于层次分析方法的未确知测度理论的评价方法评价过程合理、置信度高、结果可靠,为泥石流危险性评价提供了一种新的方法。

Unascertained measure theory and AHP methods are combined and then appli hazard assessment of debris flow. According to influence factors and grading standards ed to evaluate the of hazard assess ment of debris flow,ten indicators, such as selected debris flow scale,occurrence frequency of debris flow , drainage area,length of main ditches,maximum relative altitude in drainage area, incising density, bending coefficient of major ditch bed, length proportion of debris supplement section,maximum rainfall in 24 hours and population density, etc, were used to evaluate debris flow hazard. Unascertained measure functions of e- valuation of hazard assessment of debris flow were obtained by using unascertained measure theory. Ana- lytic hierarchy process （AHP） were used to calculate weights of the evaluation indices of hazard assess- ment of debris flow. Credible degree recognition criteria were used to evaluate hazard assessment of debris flow. Finally, the comparative analysis was made with examples. The results show that unascertained meas- ure theory is reasonable and reliable ~ and it is a new method for evaluating hazard assessment of debris flow.