基于条件价值评估方法分析中国公众气象服务效益

Benefit analysis of the public meteorological service in China based on contingent valuation method

通过对中国气象局气象效益评估研究组抽样调查得到的175958份问卷数据进行无效问卷剔除后,分析了中国公众对气象服务的满意程度等情况,结果显示约74.3%的公众对气象服务表示满意或较满意。分析表明:全国公众对灾害性天气预报警报的关注度较高,特别是对6～72 h(3 d)的短期天气预报关注度随时间呈上升趋势。调查发现,绝大多数公众(约85.5%)是通过电视媒体来获取气象信息,收视率的最高峰时间为晚上。同时研究了公众对于天气预报的准确度评价与对气象服务的总体满意度评价,结合条件价值评估方法分析得到,当满意度和准确度提高后,公众的支付意愿提高,气象服务的条件价值随着满意度的增加呈近似线性增长趋势。

By getting rid of the invalid data of 175958 questionnaires which came from China Mete- orological Administration, the public opinion of weather forecast＇s accuracy and people＇s satisfaction about meteorological service are analyzed. The results indicated that about 74. 3% of surveyed people are satis- fied with the public meteorological service in China. What＇s more, public people pay more attention to the warning forecast of meteorological disaster and the 6 - 72 h （ 3 d） forecast. The vast majority of public people （ about 85.5% ） get meteorological information by TV at night. The value of willingness to pay is increased with the ratios of weather forecast accuracy and people＇s satisfaction about meteorological service. Furthermore, according to contingent valuation method （ CVM ） , the social benefit values of public weather service through willingness to pay are also estimated.