摘要
根据灰色系统理论构建并优化了灰色GM(1,1)预测模型,应用模型对我国煤炭消费总量进行拟合和预测。该模型通过减少数据受到的冲击扰动,以适应中长期预测。经检验,该模型具有较好的精度,预测结果反映出的煤炭消费发展趋势,可为今后制定煤炭发展战略提供参考。
By using the gray system theory, this paper fits and forecasts China＇s coal consumption with a GM （1,1） model built with a new application method. Through avoiding the shock and disturbance, the model can be used for both short -time prediction and long- time prediction. From the test results indicated that the prediction is reliable, the coal consumption trend of China can be reflected and the prediction results can be used for future coal development strategy formulation.
出处
《山西焦煤科技》
2012年第7期34-37,共4页
Shanxi Coking Coal Science & Technology
关键词
煤炭消费量
GM(1
1)
优化
预测
Coal Consumption
GM （ 1,1 ）
Optimization
Prediction
