我国居民通胀承受力测度及压力测试

Measurement of Residents' Inflation Affordability and Stress-testing in China

文章借用金融系统稳定性分析中广泛使用的工具——宏观压力测试法来探讨我国居民通货膨胀承受力。在相关经济理论分析的基础上,通过分离出的替代效应,构建了居民通货膨胀承受力度量模型,并利用经验分析方法分析了宏观经济因子对我国居民通货膨胀承受力的影响,提炼出了影响通货膨胀承受力的最主要宏观因子,即货币供给量增长率和汇率变化率。依据情景分析法,对我国居民通货膨胀承受力进行了压力测试分析,实证结果显示,人民币汇率贬值有利于提高居民通货膨胀的承受力,货币供给量的加速增长则会削弱居民通货膨胀承受力。最后,结合我国当前的宏观经济状况,提出了相应的政策建议。

This paper adopted the macro stress-testing method, a widely-used tool for the analysis of financial system stability, to explore the inflation affordability of residents in China. Based on the analysis of relevant economic theories, the paper uses the isolated substitution effect to construct the measuring model of the inflation affordability of residents in China, and makes use of the empirical method to analyze the influence of macro economic factors on the inflation affordability of residents. It distills the most important macro factor affecting the inflation affordability, namely, the growth rate of money supply and rate of exchange rate changes. According to the scenario analysis method, macro stress-testing is employed in assessing inflation affordability of residents. The empirical results show that the devaluation of the RMB exchange rate will help improve the inflation affordability of residents, while accelerated growth of money supply will weaken it. Finally, with the background of China＇s current macroeconomic situation, the paper presents relevant policy recommendations.