近60年华南沿海登陆热带气旋特征和热带气旋巨灾灾情分析

Tropical Cyclones Landing on the Coastal Areas of South China and Related Catastrophes over the Past 60 Years

在回顾"巨灾"标准的基础上给出了热带气旋巨灾的定义;应用1951―2010年共60年的热带气旋和1981―2010年的热带气旋巨灾灾情资料,对登陆华南沿海地区的热带气旋及巨灾特点进行了分析研究。结果表明:1951―2010年登陆华南沿海地区的热带气旋频数总趋势是下降的;20世纪50、60年代登陆的热带气旋强度偏强,70―80年代强度偏弱,90年代以后,热带气旋强度显著减弱;华南沿海地区热带气旋登陆次数有从西向东减少的趋势;从趋势上看,随着时间的推移,单个热带气旋造成的死亡人数略有减少,单个热带气旋所造成的直接经济损失有弱的递增趋势;广东省是华南沿海地区热带气旋灾害的多发区与严重区。

International definitions about catastrophes are reviewed and the definition of tropical cyclone catastrophe is put forward.From the analysis of the meteorological data over the past 60 years,it can be seen that the number of the tropical cyclones landing on the coastal areas of South China shows a decreasing trend.The intensity of the landing tropical cyclones exhibits a similar decreasing manner.The landing tropical cyclones show a decreasing trend from the west to the east in this area.The death incurred by a tropical cyclone catastrophe presents a weak decreasing trend,while the direct economic loss incurred by that shows a weak increasing trend.Guangdong province is frequently and severely hit by tropical cyclone catastrophes.This study may be helpful to the research of the causes of tropical cyclone catastrophes and to the building of tropical cyclone catastrophes risk model.