1990―2010年广东省能源消费的碳排放驱动因素分析

Variations and Influence factors of Carbon Emission of Primary Energy Consumption from 1990 to 2010 in Guangdong Province

能源消费是碳排放的主要来源。根据IPCC碳排放计算指南缺省值计算出广东省1990―2010年的碳排放量,并对广东省近20年来碳排放进行阶段划分,采用对数平均迪氏指数法(Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index),对碳排放量进行因素分解,分析能源结构、能源效率和经济发展对碳排放的影响及作用程度。结果表明:1)1990―2010年,广东省能源消费的CO2排放总量和人均CO2排放量不断上升,万元GDP碳排放量、三次产业碳排放强度均呈下降趋势,原煤的消费是碳排放的主要来源,第二产业的CO2排放量比重最大,但呈缓慢下降趋势;2)经济发展效应对广东省能源消费碳排放的贡献率最大,其次是能源强度效应、人口规模效应,能源结构效应的贡献率最小;经济增长是碳排放量增加的主要推动因素;能源消费强度影响碳排放量的增速,能源消费强度又进一步受到产业结构和各产业能耗强度的影响,其中,第二产业能耗强度和第二产业产值比重是影响能源消费强度最主要的影响因素。

Fossil-fuel energy consumption leads to carbon dioxide emission,resulting in the global greenhouse effect.In this paper,with the application of energy consumption data in Guangdong Province from 1990 to 2010,annual carbon emission in the Province is calculated according to the default value of carbon emission calculating guidelines of IPCC,the total carbon emission,carbon emission structure and carbon emission intensity are systematically analyzed.The authors separate the elements of carbon emission by Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index and analyze their influence factors.The results show that：1） Both Carbon emission from primary energy consumption and carbon emission per capita increased gradually in Guangdong Province over the period from 1990 to 2010.In the meantime,the level of carbon emission per 10 000 Yuan of GDP had a trend to decrease.The proportion of CO2 emission of secondary industry was the highest.2） Economic growth contributed the most to the increase of carbon emission,while energy intensity effect and population scale the second,and energy consumption structure the least.Energy consumption intensity influenced the carbon emission,and energy consumption intensity was affected by the structure of production.The energy intensity and the proportion of the output value of secondary industries were the main influence factors to energy consumption intensity.