归纳问题和卡尔纳普的解答

Problem of Induction and Carnap's Answer

休谟的怀疑主义不仅终结了理性主义,也终结了经验主义。休谟在《人性论》中对因果关系理论进行了论证,其中包括三个前提条件和一个原则,使归纳问题的本质得到说明。归纳问题使归纳推理的合法性受到挑战,后来的哲学家们对此纷纷讨论,其中卡尔纳普的概率逻辑方案备受关注。卡尔纳普用演绎方法研究归纳过程,引进了概念确证度或说是验证度。通过论证,卡尔纳普把逻辑地确定概率P的问题转换成确定状态描述的概率,使归纳问题得到解决。然而,用演绎的方法来研究非演绎性的归纳逻辑是不可取的。

Hume＇s skepticism is not only the end of rationalism, but also the end of empiricism. In＂ A Treatise of Human Nature＂ , Hume argument the theory of causality through three prerequisites and a principle, illustrating the nature of the problem of induction. The problem of induction challenge the legitimacy of inductive inference. Later, philosophers had discussing how to deal with it. Carnap＇s method of probability logic was concerned. Carnap studys inductive process through deductive method and introduces the con- cept of the degree of confirmation. By argument, we know that Carnap take the problem of determine the probability of P as the problem of determine the probability of status describing, then he solved the problem of induction. However, using the method of deductive inference to study inductive logic is not desirable.