基于PCA-ESDA的中国省域旅游经济时空差异分析

Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Chinese Provincial Tourism Economy Based on PCA-ESDA

以中国大陆31个省级区域为研究单元,选取1999—2008年反映旅游经济的相关指标,利用SPSS16.0软件对数据进行主成分分析,计算出每个省份旅游经济的综合得分,然后对综合得分进行空间自相关分析。结果表明:中国旅游经济的发展水平总体上呈现从"长三角"及"珠三角"向内陆逐渐降低的特征。1999—2008年中国旅游经济发展全局空间自相关不显著,但局部空间自相关却表现出一定的规律性:沿海省份位于HH区,西部省份位于LL区,西南、部分东部和中部省份位于LH区和HL区。中国省域旅游经济发展呈现出一种持续的非均衡态势,1999—2008年中国省域旅游经济的总体空间格局并没有发生根本性的变化。省域旅游经济集聚的空间依赖性、省域经济发展水平、区位与资源禀赋、政府政策是影响中国省域旅游经济空间差异的主要原因。

Using 31 provincial regions in Chinese mainland for the research unit, this article chooses 10 indicators which can reflects the tourism economy from 1999 to 2008. By using the principal component analysis of SPSS16.0 to obtain the scores of each provincial tourism economy, which is the basic date for the next spatial autocorrelation analysis of China. Then analyzing the spatial and temporal differences of Chinese mainland＇ s tourism economy. The results are as following： （1）The China＇s tourism economic development level presents the characteristics of gradually decreasing from the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta to the inland. （2） The global Moran＇ s I is not obvious from 1999 to 2008, but the local spatial autocorrelation index has some regularity. （3） The development of Chinese provincial tourism has shown a sustained non-equilibrium situation. The overall spatial pattern of Chinese provincial tourism economy has not changed. （4） There are four reasons that affect Chinese mainland＇ s provincial tourism economy differences： The spatial dependence of provincial tourism economy agglomeration; the difference of provincial economy; location and resource endowments; the government＇s policy.