广东省汛期及非汛期最大日降雨量时空特征分析

Analysis of spatial-temporal distribution feature of maximum daily precipitation in flood period and non-flood period in Guangdong Province

针对近年来广东地区降水变率加大,极端天气事件频发以及气象灾害造成的经济损失增大的现状,基于省内26个气象站1958～2010年的连续降雨数据,利用ARCGIS平台中的反距离加权插值法和普通克里克插值法综合研究了汛期、后汛期和非汛期月最大日降雨量的时空特征,并结合气候、地形等分析其影响因素。采用Mann-Kendall(M-K)非参数统计法分析月最大日降雨序列的突变特征。结果表明,广东省前后汛期月最大日降雨量平均值呈不显著增长趋势,而粤西的前汛期月最大日降雨量平均值和粤北的后汛期月最大日降雨量平均值呈显著增长趋势。

In recent years, the variation rate of precipitation in Guangdong region is increasing, so is the extreme weather e- vents and economical loss caused by meteorological disasters. On the basis of the serial data of precipitation from 1958 to 2010 in 26 meteorological stations, using inverse distance weighted interpolation and simple Kriging interpolation of ARCGIS platform, the spatial - temporal feature of maximum daily precipitation in early flood period, later flood period and non - flood period is studied comprehensively, combining with climate and terrain, the influential factors are analyzed. The mutation characters of monthly maximum daily precipitation is analyzed using Mann - Kendall method （ M - K method）. The results show that the average value of monthly maximum daily precipitation presents a slightly increasing trend in early and later flood period in Guangdong Province, while obvious increasing trends of monthly maximum daily precipitation at west Guangdong Province in early flood period and that at north Guangdong Province in later flood period are revealed.