历史制度主义视域下戊戌变法失败的反思

Reflections on the Failure of the Reform Movement of 1898:From the Perspective of Historical Institutionalism

在历史制度主义研究视野中,制度替换往往发生于旧制度危机日益严重并将发生崩溃的"临界点"时期,决定政治走向的行动集团如果把握了行动的主导权就可能在制度变迁中成功实现制度创新。1898年的戊戌变法试图通过自上而下的渐进式改革来突破中国封建王朝路径依赖的惰性,把中国带入民主宪政的轨道之内。从新制度主义视角分析,以康有为为首的维新集团是晚清政治舞台上势力很弱的政治集团,其先天不足的因素包括组织涣散、意识形态凝聚力与整合力不足、改革所需的资源匮乏以及臣民文化对变法的阻抗等,都决定了戊戌变法不可能完成近代中国制度创新这一伟大历史使命。

From the perspective of historical institutionalism,system replacement often occurs at a 'critical point' when the old system crisis is increasingly serious and a crash will occur.The action group which determines the political trend may successfully bring about the institutional innovation if it grasps the initiative of the action.The Reform Movement of 1898 attempted a top-down gradual reform to break the laziness of Chinese feudal dynasty and put China on the track of democratic constitutionalism.From the viewpoint of historical institutionalism,the Restoration Group led by Kang You-wei was a weak political group of the late Qing government.It had many inherent deficiencies including slack organization,inadequate ideological cohesion and integration,desperate shortage of the reform resources,and the feudal culture's resistance to political reform.Hence the impossibility of the Reform Movement of 1898 to complete the great historic mission of the institutional innovation of modern China.