焦点腾云驾雾 价格盘根错节——2012年国际金融市场第二季度分析与第三季度预期

Confusing Focuses with Complicated Prices——Analysis on International Financial Market in the 2nd Quarter and Anticipation for 3rd Quarter of 2012

2012年第二季度的国际金融市场处于经济向好和价格混乱状态之下,价格方向错觉和价格基础错位严重,国际金融市场表现各具特色。2012年国际金融市场状况的生成原因在于心理不稳定、方向不确定以及政策不明朗,心理预期的心态和实际操作的结果刺激价格起伏、错落扩大。预计2012年第三季度:外汇市场美元贬值不会改变,但难度加大;股票市场高涨前景可以期待,但差异扩大;黄金市场价格创新将会呈现,但震荡加剧;石油市场未来趋势将再高涨,但波动明显;利率市场舆论预期错乱心理,但方向不变。

The international 2012, and different features causes as, mental instability, uncertainty of direction and policy, the mentality of psychological expectations and the actual operation stimulating prices in fluctuation and expansion, and etc. The expectations for the third quarter of 2012 are as follows： the depreciation tendency for the US dollar will remain unchanged with increasing difficulty in the foreign exchange market; it is likely to see a rising prospect in the stock market, but the difference will be ex- panded; innovations will be seen in the gold market with an intensified turmoil; a significantly rising trend in oil markets with high fluctuation will be seen in the future; a psychological disorder is likely to be seen in the interest rate market, but the direction will be unchanged.