从“附注”管窥贝叶斯推理

Study on Bayesian Inference According to the Scholium

资料显示,来自Fisher的批评以及诸如皮尔森、杰弗里斯等的论证已经曲解了作为非充分性理由要求的贝叶斯论证。重新审视托马斯·贝叶斯的著名附注(注释)中他为未知概率的先验均匀分布给出的辩护理由,发现被指控的原理性缺陷,在原贝叶斯文献中是不存在的。研究认为,真正的"贝叶斯推理"与早期的批评者和评论者对之的转述相比较差异很大,在逻辑上更接近于现代意义上对该概念的理解。

It shows that the critics ever made by Fisher and the arguments from Pearson, Jefferys have misread Bayes＇ s original ideas on inference. To find Bayes＇ s actual aim, his essay is a necessary way to reconsider. His own inference （ Bayesian Inference） is considerably different from most of his early commentators and be logically preferable to modern perception of it, since in this assay we found that the scholium Bayes writes has released his true minds.