模糊可变集合方法在降雨相似性分析中的应用

Application of Variable Fuzzy Sets in Rainstorm Similarity Analysis

基于特定流域场次降雨具有的相似性,应用考虑区间值模糊可变的模糊可变集合方法进行场次降雨相似性分析。通过计算各场次降雨隶属于各降雨级别的特征值及与目标场次降雨之间的相似距离,从而获得流域场次降雨相似性排序,有效解决了场次降雨相似分析中的模糊性和不确定性问题。找出与实时阶段场次降雨相似的历史场次降雨,预估水库实时阶段面临的洪水过程及量级,可为水库防洪调度提供信息参考。

Based on the similarity of rainstorm in some watersheds, variable fuzzy sets method which considers level interval as fuzzy variable has been used to analyze rainstorm similarity. Through calculating rank feature values of each rainstorm relative to rainstorm ranks and similarity distance between each rainstorm and objective rainstorm, similarity taxis of rainstorm has been ob- tained. The method can effectively resolve fuzzy and uncertain problems in rainstorm similarity analysis. Through finding historical rainstorm that has similarity with real time rainstorm and estimating flood process and flood quantity of real time by the historical rainstorm, it can provide information reference for reservoir flood control and regulation. The numerical example shows that the method used in this paper is simple and feasible and the analysis results have reference value to reservoirs.