青海省东部地区气候变化与ENSO事件关系

Relationship between ENSO Events and Climate Change in Eastern Part of Qinghai Province

摘要：ENSO（厄尔尼诺一南方涛动）事件的发生会影响区域气候变化。通过对青海东部地区5个站点1959～2005年的降水、气温资料、干燥度和海表温度距平（SSTA）与南方涛动指数（SOI）的月序列进行相关性分析和周期性谱分析，探讨了区域气候变化与ENSO事件的关系。结果表明，1959。2005年青海省东部地区气候趋于暖干，并且冬春季变化趋势显著；暖事件的发生对该区域降水、气温及干燥度的变化影响较大．且气温对ENSO事件的响应要大于降水：ENSO事件对该区域的气候变化有两到三个月的影响期，E1Nino事件的发生对当月的影响较大，而LaNina事件的发生对该区域有两到三个月的持续影响期；降水距平及气温距平与ENSO事件存在短期相同的变化趋势，且该地区气候变化受南方涛动影响明显。

ENSO （El Nino-Southern Oscillation） events usually affect the local climate change. Through the correlation and spectral analysis using the monthly series of the precipitation, temperature, aridity data from the 5 stations in the east Qinghai and sea sur- face temperature anomaly （SSTA） and Southern Oscillation Index （SOI） from 1959 to 2005, a study was made on the relationship between local climate change and the ENSO events. The results show that the climate has a trend to be warmer and drier in east Qinghai during 1959-2005, which is more obvious in winter and spring; The impact of warm events on local precipitation, tempera- ture and aridity changes become more significant, and the temperature is more sensitive to ENSO events than precipitation; ENSO events has two or three months influence on the climate change, EI Nino events have bigger effect on that very month, La Nina events has two or three months influence; Temperature anomalies, precipitation anomalies and ENSO events have the same short- term trends, and the impact of SOI on local climate changes is obvious.