中国的通货膨胀与行业经济增长——基于ECM模型的实证分析

The Relation between Inflation and Economic Growth of Chinese Main Industries——An Empirical Analysis based on ECM Model

本文通过统计描述、回归分析、格兰杰因果检验以及建立误差修正模型研究了我国的通货膨胀与农林牧渔、金融、房地产、住宿餐饮、交通运输和批发零售六大行业经济增长的关系,结果发现:通货膨胀对各个行业经济增长的影响都为负,其中对农林牧渔业的影响最大,对住宿和餐饮业的影响最小;对于农林牧渔、交通运输、住宿餐饮、批发零售行业来说,通货膨胀是经济增长的格兰杰原因,而经济增长却不是通货膨胀的格兰杰原因;当受到短期经济波动的影响时,住宿餐饮行业的稳定性最好,批发零售行业次之,而金融行业的稳定性最差。因此,为保持平稳的经济增长,政府必须采取措施控制通货膨胀,这不仅可以减少对农林牧渔业产生的影响,也有利于减轻对金融行业的冲击。

The paper studies the impact of inflation on the economic growth of different Chinese industriesthrough statistical description, regressive analysis, Granger causality test and ECM model. It is found that inflation has negative relationship with the economic growth of different industries. Inflation has greatest influence on agriculture and has least influence on hotels and catering. Inflation is the Granger causality of the economic growth of agriculture industry, transport, storage and post, wholesale and retail trades, hotels and catering, while the economic growth is not the Granger causality of the inflation. Once influenced by the short-run economic fluctuation, hotels and catering industry is most stable, wholesale and retail trades industry is second, while financial industry is least. In order to keep the economic stability, the government must carry out some measures to control the inflation, which not only can relieve the impact on agriculture industry, but also can relieve the impact on financial industry.