城市总体规划空间引导效能分析——以常熟市为例

ANALYSIS ON SPACE-LEADING EFFECTIVENESS OF CITY MASTER PLAN:A CASE STUDY ON CHANGSHU CITY

空间引导效能历来是城市总体规划实施评估的核心内容。基于历年遥感影像数据,采用城市生长极核模型、用地调控效力指数、Logit回归和用地经济效益等定量方法,对常熟几轮城市总体规划中城市总体布局、重点地区用地增长、中心城区用地置换和乡镇撤并等空间政策的调控效力展开研究。结果表明:现实城市总体布局与规划构想存在一定偏差;建设用地扩张与土地经济效益空间不相匹配;规划调控和区位条件成为影响地块闲置率的主导因素。规划对建设用地的调控效力有所增强,但对重点镇的用地调控却出现较大偏差;中心城区工业用地的"退二进三"政策效果显著,"乡镇撤并"对城镇生活性用地的调控绩效明显,但却未能抑制工业用地的散点蔓延,"一镇多区"格局仍然存在。

Space-leading effectiveness has always been the core contents of evaluation on the implementation of city master plans. Based on remote sensing images over the years, and by employing the quantitative approaches such as urban growth core model, land control effect index, Logit regression, and land economic efficiency, this paper explores the regulation effectiveness of spatial policies in all the previous city master plans of Changshu, which includes the city overall layout, land-use growth in key areas, land-use replacement in central urban areas, township cancellation and merging, etc. The result shows： there is certain difference between the actual city overall layout and the planning conception, because the plan overestimates the highway＇s driving impacts on the urban land-use growth and overemphasizes the balanced spatial layout; regardless of keydevelopment areas of planning or the hotspots of construction land growth, the construction land expansion does not match with the land economic efficiency; planning regulation and location condition become the dominant factors to influence the idleness ratio of land. In general, the city master plan has a stronger regulation effectiveness on the construction land, but has some aberration on the land-use regulation of key towns; the policy of ＂retreating from the secondary industry to enter the tertiary industry＂ for the industrial land in the central urban areas has a remarkable effect, and the policy of ＂township cancellation and merging＂ has an obvious control effect on urban living land, but the scattered expansion of industrial land has not been controlled and the pattern of a town with multiple development areas still exists.