南水北调中线一期工程生态补水潜力研究

Study of Latent Capacity of Ecological Water Supplement in the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project

采用Spearman秩次相关检验法和Mann-Kendall秩次相关检验法,在分析丹江口水库入库径流变化趋势的基础上,构建水库多目标优化调度模型,研究丹江口水库在满足汉江中下游及北调城市供水的同时,向调水受水区进行生态补水的潜力。结果表明:在1956—1998年的42 a中,除了8个枯水年或者连续枯水年无水可补之外,其余34 a均可向受水区进行生态补水,多年平均生态补水量可达21亿m3,年生态补水量最多可达45亿m3,具有向受水区进行生态补水的巨大潜力。

This paper analyzed the trend of inflow of Danjiangkou Reservoir using Spearman Rank Correlation Method and Mann-Kendal Rank Cor- relation Method. The multi-objective optimization model of Danjiangkou Reservoir was developed to calculate how much water would be available to North China for ecological use based on the fact that the other objectives, such as the water requirements of the lower reaches of Hanjiang River and the urban water demands of North China, were all satisfied. The results showed that there are 34 years during the period of 1956 to 1998 which could be diverted water from Danjiangkou Reservoir to North China for ecological use. When encountering the dry years or continuous dry years, 8 years from 1950 to 1980, there was no water for ecological use for North China. The results illustrated that Danjiangkou Reservoir has huge potential for diverting water to North China for ecological use. Specially, the multi-year mean water volume and the maximum annual water volume for ecolog- ical use can be reached to 2.1 billion m3 and 4.5 billion m3 respectively.