摘要
基于优化城市交通路线的研究目的,以南京城市交通路线上某段时间的车辆通过量为研究对象,分别运用三次指数平滑法与改进的三次指数平滑法这两种预测方法对未来该路段的车辆通过量进行动态的预测,并对这两种预测模型的预测结果进行比较,得出改进的三次指数平滑模型预测精度较高,将预测车辆通过量与实际路段容量相比较,为未来时间是否堵车提供良好、有力的判断依据,实现交通的优化。
Based on the research goal of optimizing the city traffic route, this article takes the vehicle through-put ot the Nanjing city traffic route in some period of time as the object of study, and use the cubic exponential smooth model and the improved cubic exponential smooth model respectively to carry out the dynamic forecast of this road section through-put of vehicles in the future. By comparison to two kinds of forecasting results of forecasting models, it obtains that the forecast precision of the improved cubic exponen- tial smooth model is higher than that of the other one. Through comparing the forecasting vehicle through-put to the actual road section capacity, it can provide the good and reasonable basis for judging traffic jams in the future, in order to realize the traffic optimization.
出处
《机械制造与自动化》
2012年第4期18-20,共3页
Machine Building & Automation
关键词
城市交通
预测算法
改进三次指数平滑模型
city traffic
prediction algorithm
improved cubic exponential smooth model
