风险资产加速效应数理逻辑与实证

The Mathematical Logic of the Risk Assets-acceleration Effects & Its Empirical Research

风险资产内生于参与者资产的经济活动,人们对风险资产偏好随财富同方向变化。受财富内因和各种信息外因双重冲击,风险资产有类似蝴蝶效应的加速效应,呈三环节螺旋升降。行动中,人们会以理性的非理性对待风险资产。管理者可控制风险资产的外因,而且,逆向控制违背风险资产内在加速效应,收效差;顺向管理更符合风险资产的内在传导机制,能够防范和化解风险,引导社会和谐、稳定发展。本文为这一思想提供了系统化的数理逻辑模型和ARMA(4,4)实证。

Risk assets, following the societal wealth＇s steps, are born within the economic activities based on the partners＂ assets. The butterfly - effect of risk assets - acceleration results from both the endogenesis wealth and ex- ogenous information shocking, which undergoes three- link and transforms up -and -down changes. People will act with risk assets in a way of the rational irrationality. For the exogenous aspects, the reversed strategies for risk managements violate the risk assets law, which makes little senses; instead, the downwind strategies do work well and accord with the endogenesis mechanism of the risk assets, which leads harmoniousness and stabilization society by understanding and thawing the risk. This paper gives a system logic for that and has the ARMA （4,4）model demonstration on it.