基于多层次分析模型的中国居民消费能力评估

China's Consumption Capacity Assessment Based on Hierarchical Liner Model

建立了多层次统计分析模型来考察中国居民的消费能力.在模型中,分析了居民在消费过程中面临的内在冲击和外在冲击,并定量地测定了外在冲击和内在冲击对消费能力的影响.实证研究发现,中国农村消费能力不足来源于农村居民的绝对收入过低,农村居民主要面临外在消费冲击;中国城市居民消费能力相对较高.但面临着较大的消费波动.城市居民主要面临消费的内在冲击.

This paper constructs Hierarchical Liner Model to study the vulnerability of consumers in China. In the study, we analyze the idiosyncratic and covariate shocks considered by consumer when residents consume, quantitatively determining how the idiosyncratic and covariate to influence the vulnerability. It is verified that the vulnerability is caused by lowness absolute income and influenced by covariate shocks in China rural. It is also proved empirically that the vulnerability in city is better than the rural in China, so the townsman primarily faces with the consume ituctuation and influenced by the idiosyncratic shocks.