基于模糊赋权法的境外矿产勘探风险动态评估

Dynamic Assessment of Overseas Mineral Exploration Risk Based on Fuzzy Weighting

通过对资源、技术经济、政治、经济、政策、社会和自然等多种因素进行综合分析,依据风险的稳定性把矿产勘探风险分为不稳定风险和稳定性风险,对可变风险按时间分为立项期、勘探期和验证期3个阶段进行评估。在风险评估中,采用层次分析法对风险进行分析;在矿产勘探风险影响因素的权重分配中,运用了非线性模糊赋权法,降低个人主观分配权重的干扰。把非线性模糊赋权法、层次分析法和区间动态方法有机的结合在一起,为今后对国外矿产勘探风险进行评估提供了较为科学的评估模型,从而提高境外地质风险评估的科学性和可靠性。最后结合国外矿产勘探项目实例进行分析。

By the consideration of resources, technology and economy, politics, economy, policy, society and nature in the article, the mineral exploration risks are divided into modifiable risk and stable risk based on the stability of risk. The modifiable risks were assessed in three time stages, which are project approval period, exploration period and validation period. Analytic Hierarchy Process was used to analyze risks. Nonlinear fuzzy weighting method was applied to weight the factors influencing risks of mineral exploration so as to reduce subjective interruption on the weighting. The combination of analytic hierarchy process, nonlinear fuzzy weighting method and dynamic Intervalestimation can provide a more scientific assessment model for overseas mineral exploration risks in the future,it can improve the scientificalness and reliability of geological risk assessment. Finally, an instance of overseas mineral exploration was analyzed.