近50年气候变化对滦河上游径流的影响

Influence of Climate Change on Runoff in Upper Reach of Luanhe River in Recent 50 Years

为了解近50年滦河上游气温和降水气候的变化特征、趋势及其对该流域径流量的影响,利用1956-2009年滦河上游的实测气温、降水量和径流深资料,分析了该流域气温、降水和径流深的年均和季度变化的时间序列,并建立了该流域气候变化对径流影响的复相关回归模型。结果表明,年径流深随着年降水量的减少而减少,随着年平均气温的升高而减少;春、夏和秋季的径流深随着同期降水量和气温的变化趋势与年际变化趋势基本一致,但冬季径流深则相反,而且其变化幅度非常小。

In order to understand the variation and trend of climate such as air temperature and precipi- tation and to understand the impact of climate change on runoff depth in recent 50 years in upper reach of the Luanhe River, the mean annual and seasonal time series of air temperature, precipitation and runoff depth was analyzed using Mann-Kendall nonparametric rank correlation analysis and multiple regression model based on the observed data from 1956 to 2009, and the impact of climate change on runoff depth in the drainage basin was analyzed. The results show that, the change trend of annual mean runoff depth in spring, summer and autumn with the precipitation and temperature at the same period is coincident with interannual chang trend, and vice versa in winter, but its change is very small.