近代中国的政府公债与金融市场

Government Bonds and Financial Market in Modern China

近代中国政府公债的发行开辟了政府动员国民储蓄的新时代,也为资本市场的发展提供了契机。事实上,公债已经在一定程度上介入了当时的金融市场,成为银行券的发行准备、储蓄存款的保证、银行放款的抵押品、金融业的投资筹码以及维护经济稳定的筹码;公债的交易也推动了近代中国证券市场的发展。然而,文章通过计量分析发现:利率对公债价格没有解释力。这说明政府公债还没有完全与金融市场融为一体,公债价格应该还受到很多非市场因素的影响或制约。1921年和1932年的公债整理对债信的维护具有重要意义,公债收益率的下降则是理性的回归。而法币改革则使政府摆脱了公债的财政制约。

In modern China, the issue of government bonds opene up a new era of national savings mobilized by governments and gave an opportunity to develop capital market. Actually, the bonds had been involved in then financial market to a certain extent, and became the issue reserve of bank notes, the security of deposits, the collateral for bank loans, investment chips in financial industry and the chips of maintaining economic stability; the bond transactions also promoted the development of securities market in modern China. However, by econometric analysis, this paper concludes that the interest rate could not provide a sound explanation of bond prices, showing that government bonds had not been completely integrated into financial market and bond prices might be affected or restricted by many non-market factors. Two bond arrangements which occurred in 1921 and 1932 respec tively provided great importance for the maintenance of credit and the reduction in yields of bonds was the return to rationality. And the reform of lawful money made governments cast off financial constraints of bonds.