基于改进的GM(2,1)模型的粮仓温湿度预测

The Forecasts of Temperature and Humidity of the Barn Based on the Improved GM(2,1)

建立粮仓温湿度的预测模型,对实现粮食的安全储备有着积极意义。但粮仓温湿度数据的贫乏性和其随季节变化的波动性,一直是困扰粮仓温湿度建模的难题,这也使粮仓的温湿度控制一直处于被动局面。利用灰模型贫数据建模的特点,提出了采用改进的GM(2,1)模型对粮仓检测到的温湿度数据进行建模分析的方法,得到粮仓的温湿度预测模型,实现对粮仓温湿度变化趋势的预测和预警。仿真结果表明,该模型的预测值有较高的精度,因此,有一定的实用价值。

It has a positive meaning for food security to establish the prediction model of temperature ano hu- midity of granary. Because of the deficient and fluctuation with season of the granary temperature and humidity data, it has been in a passive situation for modeling. In this paper, a new method is proposed that uses improved GM （2,1） model to analyze the temperature and humidity data, and to get the forecast model , it~ order to forecast the future trend of storage conditions of the barn. It uses the deficient data modeling character of gray model. The simulation re- suits show that the forecasts of the model is high accuracy, therefore, the method has a certain practical value.