摘要
利用2001年到2010年的月度数据,运用基于VEC模型的脉冲响应函数和方差分解,分析宏观经济因素对中国寿险需求的影响机理和时序维度上的动态特征表明:国内生产总值冲击会给寿险保费收入带来正向影响,这一冲击具有显著的促进作用和较长的持续效应;通货膨胀率对寿险保费收入具有较小的负向影响;利率和股市波动长期来看对寿险保费收入也有正向影响。方差分解结果表明,国内生产总值的冲击对寿险保费收入影响最大,其余依次为利率、通货膨胀率和上证综合指数。
This paper applies impulse respond functioia and variance decomposition method based on VEC model to investigate the effect mechanism and dimensionality dynamic features of macro economy on China life insurance demand using monthly data from 2001--2010. The results show that GDP has a positive influence on life insurance premium, and this influence is significant and continuous. Inflation has a relatively small negative influence on life insurance premium. Interest rate and stock index fluctuation have positive influences on life insurance premium in the long term. Variance decomposition results show that impulse from GDP to life insurance premium is the grea- test, and then is interest rate, inflation and stock index respectively.
出处
《现代财经（天津财经大学学报）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第8期23-30,共8页
Modern Finance and Economics：Journal of Tianjin University of Finance and Economics
基金
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(2010221049)
