人民币汇率与中国对外贸易失衡的状况分析

Status Research on the RMB Exchange Rate and China's Trade Imbalance

通过应用Campa和Goldberg的汇率传递模型构建用于核算汇率传递系数的计量经济模型,用该模型对我国汇率的进出口价格传递系数进行计算发现无论在长期还是短期,汇率传递系数都很大。进一步地,通过建立一个比较静态国际收支模型对马歇尔-勒纳条件进行检验。其基本结论为:从长期来看,马歇尔-勒纳条件在我国成立,即人民币贬值将会改善我国的贸易收支状况;在短期内,净出口对于实际有效汇率贬值的反应呈现出J曲线效应。

Firstly, an econometric model for accounting for exchange rate pass--through coeffi- cient was constructed by applying Campa and Goldberg^s exchange rate pass--through model. And then we used this econometric model to calculate exchange rate pass--through coefficients of China ＇s exchange rate on the import and export prices and found that in terms of long--term or short-- term, the coefficients of the exchange rate pass--through were large relatively. Furthermore, we tested the Marshall--Lerner condition through establishing a comparative static model of balance of payments. The basic conclusions are： in the long term, the Marshall -- Lerner condition is estab- lished in China, that is, the RMB depreciation will improve China＇s trade balance~ in the short term, a J--curve effect is showed from the reaction of net exports on the real effective exchange rate depreciation .