新疆养老保险风险评价指标的建立及初步研究

Establishment and Preliminary Research of Risk Assessment Index of Endowment Insurance in Xinjiang

本文运用层次分析法、熵值法和模糊综合评价法对新疆养老保险风险评价指标展开评估.在分别采用层次分析法和熵值法评价每个指标对新疆各地州养老保险风险的影响情况基础上,采用模糊综合评价法综合前两种评价的结论,得到对新疆养老保险风险的整体评估.评估表明新疆14个地州养老保险风险状况可以分为两个等级,一级地区包括昌吉州、喀什地区、乌鲁木齐市、克拉玛依市和阿克苏地区;其余9个地州为二级地区.一级地区总体养老保险潜在风险相对较小.

In this article, analytic hierarchy process, entropy method and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method were used to assess the risk assessment index of endowment insurance in Xinjiang. At first, the effect of different indexes of analytic hierarchy process and entropy method to endowment insurance of different area of Xinjiang was investigated. Based on these results, the full assessment of Xinjiang was achieved using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The results showed that the conditions of endowment insurance can be divided into 2 classes. Changji, Kashi, Urumqi, Kelemayi and Akesu were the first class, and the rest 9 areas were the second class. In the first group, the risk of endowment insurance is relatively small.