应用联合分析预测住院病人服务需求

Applying Conjoint Analysis to Predict Inpatients' Preference for Medical Care.

目的 为医疗管理决策和医疗服务市场研究提供一种新的方法学手段。方法 采用问卷形式进行现场调查 ,用联合分析法预测住院病人在药物选择、床位类型、收费透明度、出院后服务、知情选择等 5个方面的需求偏好。结果 模型的预测效度为 0 997,床位类型、知情选择等服务的供需之间存在明显的矛盾。结论 联合分析是预测病人服务需求的一种有效。

Objective To provide a new methodology for decision-making of hospital management and medical market research.Method The inpatients were interviewed with a questionnaire in which there were five factor:drug cost,bed expenses,charging information,service after discharge,informed decision-making.Conjoint analysis was applied to predict patients' preference for medical care.Results Predicting Validity of the conjoint analysis model was very high with Pearson's correlation coefficient 0 997.This study showed that there were obvious contradiction between supply and demand in medical care provided by these two hospitals.Conclusion Conjoint analysis is a valid and practicable technique to assess and predict inpatients' preference for medical care.