突发公共安全事件扩散动力学模型仿真研究

Simulation Study of Public Safety Emergencies Based on The Complex Dynamics Model of Emergency Proliferation

由于自然—社会—经济系统互动随社会发展不断增加,突发公共安全事件更多地呈现出扩散化的形式,产生的影响远大于单一事件的发生。本文以复杂系统理论和复杂网络理论为基础并借鉴灾害链的相关研究,分别针对单一突发公共安全事件、突发公共安全事件链式扩散和突发公共安全事件网络扩散的特征、共性进行探索,建立事件发生和扩散的复杂系统动力学模型,通过突发公共安全事件扩散网络的动力学模型进行仿真实验,进一步探索不同网络结构和影响因素下的突发事件扩散机理。在复杂网络中,不同网络结构、事件爆发阈值、事件间关联度都会对突发事件的扩散产生影响。

The public safety emergencies present a form of proliferation as the system of nature, society and economy develops ahead, which endanger much greater impact than single accidents. Based on the complex system and complex network theory and relevant study on disaster chain, this paper establishes a complex dynamics model of the emergency proliferation after analy- zing the characters and similarities of single, chained proliferating and network proliferating public safety emergencies. Then, the paper simulates the complex dynamics model of emergency proliferation, and further studies the proliferation mechanism caused by different network structures and factors.