预测法在安全生产中的应用研究评述及展望

Review of Application of Prediction Methods in the Field of Production Safety

为更好地研究不同预测法在安全生产领域的应用现状和发展趋势,以当前安全类主流杂志中发表的涉及安全生产的文献为依据,统计6种定量预测法使用的频率和范围,分析预测法在当前安全生产方面应用的特点和成效,探讨预测法在安全领域的应用价值和前景。得出结论:选择有效预测法能极大地提高安全生产中事故发生的预测效率,做到先预防再预控;没有一种预测法是恒定有效的,预测法的选择需要根据不同部门、不同场景进行调整;组合预测法的灵活使用不仅能够避免单一预测法的不足,而且能提高事故预测的准确度。

In order to better study the actual state and the developing trend of application of the different prediction methods in the production safety field, on the basis of plentiful articles about production safety （published in current major safety magazines） , the use frequency and scope of six quantitative prediction methods were counted. Application characteristics and effectiveness of prediction methods were analyzed. The application values and prospects of the prediction methods in current production safety were explored. Results show that effective choice of prediction methods can improve accident prediction efficiency in the field of production safety. There is no invariable prediction method that is forever effective and the choice of prediction method should be adjusted to different departments and scenes. The flexible uses of various models or even combinations of prediction methods not only can avoid shortness of a single prediction meth- od, but also can improve the prediction accuracy.