基于警源-压力-预警能力的城市公共危机预警研究

Research on Early Warning of Urban Public Crisis Based on Alert Source-pressure-early Warning Ability

为提高城市公共危机系统预警能力,基于耶克斯-多德森(Yerkes-Dodson)定律构建该系统警源-压力-预警能力的概念模型,分析警源、压力、预警能力三者间的关系,进而提出警源-压力-预警能力的系统动力学(SD)模型,并利用Vensim PLE仿真软件进行案例模拟分析,最后结合仿真结果从系统内外2个维度探讨提高城市公共危机系统预警能力的应对策略。结果表明:警源和压力是城市公共危机系统预警能力的2个主要影响因素。建立健全相关法律体系和改善危机系统"周边环境",减小外部警源到达率;完善预警机制和加强防范管理,提高系统内部鲁棒性,能够提高城市公共危机系统预警能力。

To improve early warning ability of urban public crisis system, firstly, a concept model of alert source-pressure-early warning ability was built based on Yerkes-Dodson＇s law. Secondly, a SD model was built based on alert source, pressure and early warning ability, which describes the relationship between the three variables. A simulation of a certain case was done using vensim PLE software. The results show that the alert source and the pressure are two major factors affecting the early warning ability. Finally, based on the simulation results, strategies are put forward from the inside and outside dimensions in order to improve the warning ability of urban public crisis. On the one hand, arrival rate of external alert source should be reduced by means of establishing the relevant law system and improving ＂environ- ment＂ of the crisis system, on the other hand, internal robustness should be improved through perfecting warning mechanism and strengthening monitoring and management.