基于模糊数学的电网规划方案LCC模型不确定性分析

LCC Uncertainty Analysis of Network Planning Programs Based on Fuzzy Mathematics

电力设备全寿命周期成本(Life Cycle Cost,LCC)估算是LCC技术在电网规划方案评价中应用的关键,其多种不确定性因素的处理是分析和计算的难点。构建了电网规划方案评价的LCC模型,针对模型中折现率和项目投资成本、运维成本、报废成本等多个变量的不确定性引入模糊集理论对原模型中的变量进行模糊化处理,建立了模糊化的LCC计算模型,引入了基于顶点方法的模糊模型求解方法,并对方案的排序方法进行了探讨。通过对某省"十二五"规划方案比选问题的分析,证明所提出的模型和方法的有效性。

LCC （Life Cycle Cost） estimation on power equipment is the key to the application of LCC technology in network planning program evaluation, and the handling of a variety of uncertainties constitutes the analysis and calcu- lation difficulty. In this paper, the LCC model is established for network planning program evaluation. Then consider- ing the uncertainty of the variables in the LCC model, such as discount rate, project investment cost, operation and maintenance cost and scrap cost, the fuzzy set theory is introduced to fuzz the variables in the original model, and the fuzzy LCC calculation model is established. Subsequently, vertex method is introduced to solve the fuzzy model, and sorting methods among all the schemes are discussed. Finally, the selection of the twelfth Five-Year Planning Program in a province is analyzed to prove the effectiveness of the proposed model and method.