日本参加TPP的“内忧”与“外患”

Japan’s“Domestic Trouble”and“Foreign Aggression”in joining the Negotiation of TPP

文章分析了日本参加TPP谈判问题所面临的困境及其对未来内政外交走向的影响。首先,在经济方面,日本因参加TPP谈判将面临是继续保护农业还是扩展制造业出口以振兴经济的矛盾;其次,在政治方面,由于参加TPP谈判日本将面临由于各利益集团冲突引起的国内政治矛盾;第三,在外交方面,因为参加TPP谈判,日本将与美国围绕以农业为主的市场开放的程度问题进行博弈,同时也陷入如何协调美国市场与中国市场的关系的矛盾。文章认为日本将不会在短期内解决这些矛盾,而只能在国内政界重新整合与国际格局进一步发展变化的过程中逐步得到解决。

This paper analyses Japan＇s ＂domestic trouble＂ and ＂foreign aggression＂ in joining the negotiation of TPP. First, Japan faces the economic dilemma of protecting agriculture or enhancing the export of industrial products to promote the economy. Second, Japan faces the domestic political conflict of different political groups. Third, Japan will have to struggle with US about how much the agricultural market will be open, and face the dilemma of coordinating the relationship of American market and Chinese market. The paper doesn＇t think Japan can handle the trouble in a short time, which can only be solved with the domestic political realignment and the change of international situation.