鄱阳湖区环境因素对血吸虫病时空分布格局影响的研究

Effect of environmental factors on temporal and spatial distribution of schistosomiasis in Poyang Lake region

目的探讨并解析未来气候变化后鄱阳湖区钉螺时空分布动态特征。方法选取鄱阳湖血吸虫病疫区8县实测气温、降水量、螺情调查数据以及防治等资料,选取日降雨量、月平均温度血吸虫生长发育的基础温度、潜在蒸散率等因子,构建鄱阳湖区血吸虫病传播模型,分析鄱阳湖区各区域内血吸虫病传播指数的变化。利用ArcGIS软件绘制出鄱阳湖区血吸虫病传播指数分布趋势图,预测血吸虫病传播;利用泰尔系数分析鄱阳湖区有螺洲滩空间格局的分布区域总体差异、区域间差异及其对区域总体差异的影响。结果鄱阳湖区血吸虫病传播在时间尺度上具有很大的差异,同时在湖区各县域内空间变化也较大。结论鄱阳湖区适宜钉螺、血吸虫的生境已向北移动,存在血吸虫病疫情传播向北偏移的可能性,进一步影响鄱阳湖区血吸虫病疫情流行态势的蔓延。

Objective To explore and analyze the dynamic characteristics of temporal and spatial distribution of schistosomiasis in Poyang Lake region.Methods A model of schistosomiasis transmission was constructed with the actual temperature,rainfall,data of snail investigation,data from schistosomiasis control and treatment,and factors such as daily rainfall,average monthly temperature-base temperature for schistosome growing and development in the 8 counties of Poyang Lake region,and the change of schistosomiasis spreading indexes was analyzed.The map of schistosomiasis spreading trend was drawn by using ArcGIS software,and the spread of schistosomiasis was forecasted.The spatial distribution of areas of snail breeding marshlands was analyzed by using Theil index.Results The transmission of schistosomiasis in Poyang Lake region not only had big difference on temporal scale,but also changed on spatial scale among the counties in Poyang Lake region.Conclusion In Poyang Lake region,the ecosystem suiting snail breeding already shifts to north,which certainly will alter the epidemic situation of schistosomiasis.