基于因子分析的房地产开发市场风险分析与评价

Market risk analysis and evaluation in real estate development with factor analysis

为了判断在房地产开发过程中由市场环境的变化所引起的风险大小,引入因子分析法对其进行定量评价。在对房地产开发的市场风险进行深入分析的基础上,运用因子分析法对全国31个地区的市场风险大小进行排序,其中江苏省的市场综合风险最大,其次为广东和浙江。实证研究结果表明,该方法可以对房地产开发市场风险进行定量评价。

In order to measure the risk caused by the change of market environment in the real estate development process, a factor analysis method is applied to evaluate the risk quantitatively. On the basis of the analysis of real estate market risk, 31 areas in China are ordered from the large risk to small risk by using the factor analysis method, where the market risk in Jiangsu province is biggest and the following provinces are Guangdong and Zhejiang. The empirical result shows that the factor a- nalysis can make a quantitative evaluation on real estate development market risk.