中国房地产投资的产出弹性——基于时变系数面板数据模型的估计

On the Output Elasticity of Real-Estate Investment in China——Based on Panel Data Model with Time-Varying Coefficients

基于30个省(直辖市、自治区)1999-2010年的面板数据,通过建立时变弹性生产函数模型估算了中国房地产投资和非房地产投资的产出弹性并描述其变化趋势。实证结论表明:1999-2010年间,中国房地产投资的产出弹性远低于非房地产投资的产出弹性,且两者均呈非线性变化,意味着房地产投资的高速增长伴随生产效率的不断下降;房地产投资产出弹性在2008年出现历史性拐点,反映出中国政府自2006年末以后实施的房地产业发展的深化调控措施已经并在继续发挥其积极效应。因此,在中国房地产市场化程度还不是很高,市场还不很成熟的情况下,行政调控作为一种辅助手段,可以弥补市场的失效和不足;但与此同时,政府必须注意合理控制中国房地产投资的规模和增速,从而实现经济的持续高效发展。

Using the panel data of 30 provinces （autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government） in China from 1999 to 2010, this paper builds a production function model with time-varying elasticity for an estimation of the output elasticity of real estate investment and non-real estate investment, and for a description of the changing tendency of the elasticity. The empirical results show： from 1999 to 2010, the output elasticity of real estate investment in China is far lower than that of non-real estate investment; both the elasticity of real estate investment and the elasticity of non-real estate investment are changing over time in non-linear form, which implies that the high speed growth of the real estate investment is passing along with the continuous decline in production efficiency, that the output elasticity of real estate investment came to its historical turning point in 2008, and that a series of regulations since late 2006 implemented by China＇s government to deeply control the development of real estate industry has been playing a positive part. Therefore, under the situations that real estate industries in China are facing an immature market, administrative regulation as an auxiliary means can make up for the market failure and its disadvantages. In the meanwhile, the government must pay attention to appropriately control the scale and growth rate of real estate investment in order to realize a sustainable and efficient economic development.