对外贸易竞争力与产业结构的相关性分析——基于浙江省1989—2011年数据的实证检验

A Correlative Analysis of Foreign Trade Competitiveness and Industrial Structure:An Empirical Study of the Data of Zhejiang from 1989 to 2011

以浙江省1989至2011年的时序数据为依据,对浙江省对外贸易竞争力与产业结构的相关性进行了实证分析。实证结果表明:浙江省产业结构变化与对外贸易竞争力存在相互促进且互为格兰杰因果关系。为此,应进一步优化浙江省出口商品结构,逐步改善浙江省的进口产品结构,加快传统产业技术改造的步伐,大力发展高科技产业,积极推进现代服务业的发展,以促进浙江省产业结构升级与对外贸易竞争力提升的良性互动。

Based on data of Zhejiang province from 1989 to 2011, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the correlation between the competitiveness of foreign trade and the industrial structure of Zhejiang province. The result shows that the industrial structure change and the competitiveness of foreign trade enhance mutually, in keeping with the Granger causality. This suggests that Zhejiang needs to further optimize the export commodity structure, gradually improve the import commodity structure, speed up the reform of traditional industrial technology, exert great efforts to develop hi-tech industries and actively promote the development of modem service industry to strengthen the benign interaction between the upgrade of industrial structure and improvement of foreign trade competitiveness of Zhejiang province.