中国发生资本流入“急刹车”的可能性及其防范

On the Possibility of “Sudden Stop” of Capital Inflows and Preventing Measures in China

就国内外经济现状和趋势来看,中国短期内发生资本流入"急刹车"的可能性不大,但潜在风险客观存在,风险主要源于劳动力成本上升可能导致的经济增速持续下降。因此,在抑制短期资本过度流入的同时,应注重提高资本和技术的产出贡献率,抵消劳动力成本上升对我国经济增长和国际竞争力的负面冲击,并着力构建防范体系,以保证在发展中国家资本流入"急刹车"再次发生时,我国不会首当其冲遭受冲击。

On the basis of the situation and trends of domestic and international economy, the sudden stop of capital inflows is unlikely to occur in the short term in China. However, the potential risks still exist, which come mainly from the possibly continued decline of economic growth rate led by the rising of labor cost. Therefore, while inhibiting the excessive inflows of short term capital and building the preventing system, we should make great efforts in improving the contribution rate of capital and technology to offset the negative impact of higher labor cost to the economic growth and international competitiveness. Only in this way, can China avoid to be the first to bear the brunt of shocks when the sudden stop of capital inflows occurs again in developing countries.