基于遍历参数的主权信用风险评级方法

Assessment of Country Credit Risks Based on the Method of Traversal Parameter

影响主权信用风险的因素众多,我们在对国内外相关文献和评级实践进行系统研究与梳理的基础上,发现无论是学术研究还是评级实践,在确定各个风险要素重要性时大多采用专家主观评估的方法。本文针对传统专家打分法在准确性与客观性方面存在的不确定性问题,建立了基于遍历参数的主权信用评级方法,该方法既有效综合了不同专家意见,也统筹了主权信用风险的特殊性与评级要求一致性的矛盾,使最终风险评估结果更具客观性。

There are numerous factors that affect a country＇ s credit risk. Based on the systematical research of relevant domestic and overseas literatures as well as the methodology used by rating agencies, we found that in both academic and practical cases, subjective assessment had been widely used by experts in assessing the relative importance and weight of each risk factor. Since uncertainties exist in the accuracy and objectivity of traditional expert scoring methods, we proposed in this paper a novel assessing method based on traversal parameter. This method can effectively integrate comprehensive opinions from different specialists and take into account the contradiction between the particularity of each country＇s credit risk and the consistency required in rating practice, so the final risk assessment results can be more obiective.