民生财政对居民消费贡献有多大——基于1978—2010年经验数据的实证检验

How much does public spending on people 's livelihood contribute to household consumption?——Empirical test based on the empirical data from 1978 to 2010

利用1978—2010年经验数据,运用非结构化的向量自回归模型进行实证,结果表明:增加一次民生财政支出,能带动城镇居民消费支出1.933166%—5.298963%,农村居民消费支出1.222875%—2.348035%,进而拉动经济增长3.580686%—22.41957%。其中,2.400044%—9.275321%的经济波动由投资性民生财政的变动解释,10.17536%—12.55462%由转移性民生财政变动解释。本文的政策含义是,建立长效的民生财政机制,促进消费公平,培育和扩大公共文化服务消费热点,促进我国经济的持续稳定增长。

Using the empirical data from 1978 to 2010 and taking the unstructured vector auto regression model for empirical test, we find out that： Increasing the public spending on people＇ s livelihood once can increase the consumption of urban residents by 1. 933166%-5. 298963% and the consumption of rural residents by 1. 222875%-2. 348035%, and then further stimulate economic growth by 3. 580686%-22. 41957% among which 2. 400044%-9. 275321% of economic fluctuation is contributed by the changes in the fiscal investment of people＇s livelihood while 10. 17536%-12. 55462% is contributed by the fiscal transfer of public spending on people＇ s livelihood. The policy implications of this article include： to set up long - term mechanism for the public spending on people＇ s livelihood; to promote fair in consumption; to cultivate and expand hot consumption areas of public cultural services; and to promote consistent stable growth of China＇ s economy.