我国总供需变动走势对广东区域协调发展的影响研究

The Influence of China's Social General Supply and Demand Trend on Harmonious Development of Guangdong Region

关注区域的差距最终缩小,实现广东区域经济协调发展,是关乎民生的重大课题。以马克思主义经济学及系统动力学等相关理论为依据,构建我国总供需变化对广东区域经济发展影响的SD(system dynam-ics)模型,分析未来5～10年我国总供需走势对我省区域经济协调发展影响的内在机理。分析表明:我国总供需走势会通过市场、资金、人口等重要"流"的流转和循环,直接或通过对广东产业与劳动力双转移产生的效应,间接影响我省区域经济协调发展。在劳动力供求格局出现重大转变、初级要素成本上升、投资放缓、内外需失衡等变化的大背景下,我省协调发展的难度增大。只有不断在推进制度创新、投资结构优化及重视教育等方面进行突破,才能缓解未来我国总供需变动对我省区域协调发展的不利影响。

It is a major issue,which is closely related to people＇s livelihood,to narrow the gap of regions and eventually to achieve harmonious development of Guangdong region.On the base of the Marxist economics,System Dynamics,and other related theories,SD（system dynamics） models will be set up to analyze the influence of our social general supply and demand＇s trend on harmonious development of Guangdong region.The analysis shows that：the industry and labor double transfer in Guangdong will be affected by the trend of our general supply and demand through the commodity markets,capital,population and other important ＂flow＂,and they will have a significant affection on harmonious development of region.Under the situation of major changes in labor supply and demand,primary factor costs rising,the investment slowdown,internal and external imbalances and other changes,harmonious development of regions in our province will become more difficult.Under this background,only some measures including promoting institutional innovation,optimizing investment structure and paying attention to education and so on will reduce the adverse effects of our general supply and demand＇s trend on regional harmonious development in Guangdong.