主要气象因子对吐鲁番枣实蝇越冬代成虫羽化率的影响

Impacts of Main Meteorological Factors on Emergence Rate of Carpomyia vesuviana Overwinter Generation Adult in Turpan

枣实蝇（Carpomyia vesuviana Costa）是我国禁止进境的检疫性入侵害虫,该害虫主要以幼虫蛀食果肉来为害红枣（Ziziphus jujube Mill.）和酸枣（Z.juju-ba var.spinosa（Bunge）Hu）等[1-2]。

The partial correlation analysis on the relationship between the main meteorological factors and daily emergence amount of Carpomyia vesuviana overwinter generation adult from the beginning to the peak of emergence was conducted. The results of stepwise regression analysis show that the air temperature, the soil temperature and the relative humidity of soil are the main meteorological factors affecting the emergence amount of overwintering emer- gence. The results of Path analysis and decision-making system analysis show that the air temperature has positive affect on the emergence and is an important index directly impacting on the emergence amount of C. vesuviana; The soil temperature is the most important factor limiting the amount of emergence; the soil relative humidity has the greatest comprehensive influence on the amount of emergence. Based on partial correlation analysis, a multiple regression equation was established on the main meteorological factors and C. vesuviana overwintering generation adult emergence. The emergence amount predicted by the model is significantly correlated with the amount of emergence which was field measured. So this model is applicable for forecasting the amount of C. vesuviana overwintering generation adult.