东盟五国出口贸易的能源消费效应分析

An Analysis of Energy Consumption Effect on Export Trade in ASEAN-5

文章基于出口贸易的能源消费模型,分别采用1971～1997年以及1997～2007年两个阶段的东盟五国人均能源消费量和人均出口贸易额相关数据,运用面板协整方法进行实证检验。研究结果表明:总体上东盟五国出口贸易与能源消费之间存在着长期协整关系;后一阶段的出口贸易对能源消费效应的长期弹性比前一阶段更小;两个阶段出口贸易与能源消费之间的关系都从短期的双向因果变为长期单向因果关系,乃至更长期协整关系的削弱。最后根据研究结果,结合中国实际给出几点建议:优化产业和产品出口结构、转变出口增长方式、发展低碳经济;提高低能耗、高附加值的现代服务业出口的比重;提高企业自主创新能力,培育更多的世界品牌。

On the basis of energy consumption model of the export trade and the data of the ASEAN-5 Countries per capita energy consumption and per capita export trade in 1971-1997 and 1997-2007 respectively,this paper makes an empirical study of energy consumption effect on export trade by using the panel co-integration method.The results indicate that： there exists a long-term co-integrated relationship between energy consumption and export trade in ASEAN-5;the long-term elasticity of the export trade on energy consumption effect in 1971-1997 is bigger than that in 1997-2007;for both phases,the relationship between energy consumption and export trade has changed from mutual benefit in the short run to one-way benefit in the long run,which finally weakens the co-integrated relationship in the long run.A few suggestions are drawn accordingly on the basis of the research results and the reality in China： first,optimize the industrial and export structure,transform the mode of export growth,develop the low-carbon economy;second,increase the proportion of exports of modern service industry characterized by low-power consumption and high value-added;third,improve the capability of independent innovation,and cultivate better-known world brands.