中国利率市场化的发展及前景展望

The Development and Outlook of Interest Rate Marketization in China

我国利率市场化目前已经取得了阶段性的成功,不仅为进一步深化改革积累了经验,而且对于优化资金资源配置,促进金融体系改进服务质量起到了积极地推动作用。但同时,前期改革中也暴露出一些问题。对我国利率市场化演进趋势,本文有以下几点判断:一是从国际经验和国内现实条件来看,贷款利率下限管制有望在试点、评估、推广的基础上逐步放开。二是存款利率完全市场化仍需5-10年的时间。三是长期来看,我国利率市场化推进的快慢关键取决于存款市场的竞争格局以及银行自身的经营管理水平,应谨慎、有约束地推动利率改革。

At present, the success has been made in the process of interest rate marketization, which not only accumulates experience for further deepening reform, but also pushes the optimization of the capital allocation and improvement of financial system＇s service standard. But at the same time, some problems have emerged during this period. As to the development trend of interest rate marketization in China, the paper makes the following judgments. The first judgment is that according to international experience and domestic situations, the control of floor of loan interest rate will gradually be loosed on the basis of the pilot project, evaluation and spread. The Second judgment is that it will take 5 to 10 years to realize the goal of deposit interest rate markctization. In the long term, the speed of interest rate marketization in China depends on the competition of deposit market and management of banking. The interest rate reform should be cautiously push forward.