技术势差、进口贸易溢出与生产率空间差异——基于双门槛效应的检验

Technology Gap,Technology Spillovers of Import and Difference on TFP Growth: Based on Double-edged Threshold Effect Analysis

本文利用我国1992-2010年的省际面板数据,构建门槛模型实证分析进口贸易技术溢出及其技术势差的门槛效应。研究结果表明:进口贸易技术溢出在我国存在显著的技术势差的双门槛效应。在技术水平较高的沿海地区,由于技术势差较小使得进口贸易的溢出效果并不十分明显,但相对的自主创新弹性很高;在中等技术水平地区,由于技术势差的增强,这些地区正处在由模仿向创新转变的关键时期;而在技术落后地区,则需要加强人力资本积累,增强国际技术溢出的吸收能力,才能实现技术的跨越发展。

A threshold model is constructed based on Chinese panel data to analyze the technology spillovers of import and its ＂threshold effect＂ on tech nology gap. The results show that the technology spillovers of import have the ＂dualthreshold effect＂ on the technology gap. Due to a smaller technology gap, higher level of skills makes the import trade spillover effect more clear in coastal area, but the elasticity of independent inno vation is relatively higher. In the middle level of technology areas, due to the in creasing technology gap, these areas are in the transition from imitation to innova tion. In the backward technology areas, enhancing human capital accumulation to absorb the international technology spillovers is an important approach to enhance technology development.