产业转移、国际贸易和CO_2排放——来自我国工业的实证分析

Industrial Transfer, International Trade and CO2 Emission:An Empirical Study on China’s Industries

文章利用修正的净出口消费指数检验"污染天堂假说"发现,我国没有成为污染产业的"天堂";尽管我国的产业转移是双向的,但工业集聚的程度有所提高。在此基础上,构建CO2排放影响模型实证分析得出以下结论:贸易开放程度对CO2排放有负向影响,提高贸易开放程度有利于降低CO2排放;外商直接投资的存量规模和参与程度对CO2排放均有正向影响,外商直接投资的存量规模或参与程度的提高会增加我国的CO2排放压力。最后指出限制贸易或外商直接投资不能有效降低我国工业的CO2排放,应以产业结构升级为目的,通过提升产业技术水平,降低排放密度来控制CO2的排放规模。

This paper tests net exports consumption index, the ＇Pollution heaven hypothesis＇ using adjusted and finds that China has not become the heaven of dirty industry yet. Industrial agglomeration of China is increasing with a twoway industry transfer. On this basis, this paper develops a model of CO2Emis sion and draws the following conclusions through empirical analysis： Trade open ness has a negative effect on CO2 emission, in other words CO2 emissions will reduce with an increase in trade openness. The stock scale of FDI and the partici pation of FDI have negative effects on CO2 emission. The improvement of the stock scale of FDI or the participation of FDI will increase China s CO2emissions pressure. At last, I point out that restraint of trade or FDI can not effectively re duce CO： emissions of China＇ s industries and China should control the Scale of industrial CO： emission by increasing the level of industrial technology and re ducing intensity of emissions with a purpose of industrial structure upgrading.