2008-2011年辽宁省大连市传染病自动预警信息分析

Performance of automatic early warning system of communicable diseases in Dalian,Liaoning,2008-2011

目的分析2008-2011年辽宁省大连市传染病自动预警信息的分布状况,为进一步优化传染病自动预警信息系统的预警效果提供依据。方法采用描述性流行病学研究方法对2008-2011年大连市传染病自动预警信息分布状况进行分析,并采用χ2检验和方差分析方法对不同地区、病种、时间的预警阳性率和响应时间进行比较。结果 2008-2011年大连市通过预警系统共收到预警信息9415条,经现场调查确定暴发/流行228起,预警阳性率为2.42%;各县(区)均有预警信息;涉及的病种18种,其中预警信息较多的病种有其它感染性腹泻病、流行性腮腺炎、风疹、细菌性痢疾、猩红热、手足口病,共计8648条,占总数的91.85%;预警阳性率较高的病种依次是甲型H1N1流感、流行性腮腺炎、风疹和手足口病;按照系统发出预警信号到填报异常信息卡的时间统计,响应时间中位数为0.53 h,四分位间距1.55 h,按照填报异常信息卡至开始现场调查时间统计,响应中位数为0.10 h,四分位间距为5.15 h。结论传染病自动预警信息系统在实际应用中存在一些局限性,有待于进一步优化。

Objective To analyze the performance of automatic early warning system of communicable diseases in Dalian during 2008-2011 and provide scientific evidence for the improvement of early warning system.Methods Descriptive epidemiological analysis was conducted on the information obtained from the automatic early-warning system from 2008 to 2011,and chi-square and one way ANOVA analysis were conducted to compare the disease specific positive rate of early warning and response interval in different place and time.Results Totally 9415 warnings signals of disease outbreaks in all districts in Dalain,involving 18 kinds of communicable diseases,were released by automatic early warning system during this period,and 228 of them were verified by field investigation,the positive rate of early warning was 2.42%.The major diseases being frequently involved included other infectious diarrhea,mumps,rubella,bacillary dysentery,scarlet fever and hand foot and mouth disease,accounting for 91.85% of total signals.The diseases with high positive rate were influenza A（H1N1）,mumps,rubella and hand foot and mouth disease.From warning signal releasing to reporting,the median of the response interval was 0.53 hour and the inter-quartile range was 1.55 hour.From reporting to field investigation,the median of the response interval was 0.10 hour and the inter-quartile range was 5.15 hours.Conclusion Problems still exist in application of the automatic early warning system of communicable disease and improvement of this early warning system should be made.